| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 2026 | L | Virginia | 8-34 | 1633.9 | -46.2 | 1587.7 | 47.9% |
| 2 | Sep 11 2026 | W | Richmond | 73-0 | 1587.7 | +84.1 | 1671.8 | 95.3% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Vanderbilt | 31-35 | 1671.8 | +2.9 | 1674.7 | 48.9% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | App State | 41-31 | 1674.7 | -14.2 | 1660.5 | 82.1% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Louisville | 31-28 | 1660.5 | -6.2 | 1654.3 | 43.8% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Wake Forest | 14-38 | 1654.3 | -37.1 | 1617.2 | 42.2% |